A recent poll conducted by the state’s top newspapers indicates the Texas primaries will not be as widely contested as previously predicted. About a year ago, U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison announced her campaign to challenge incumbent Governor Rick Perry for the 2010 race. Many predicted an all out, nail-biting, to the wire, partisan wrangling between two of Texas’ GOP superstars. Perry leads Hutchison with 45 percent of likely Republican primary voters, while 29 percent back Hutchison and 17 percent support Debra Medina; 8 percent remain undecided.

According to the Texas Ethics Commission, Perry & Hutchison have similar access to cash on hands, but Hutchison outspent her opponent almost two to one. However, Perry has outraised her three to one in contributions. Various factors help explain the recent poll and fundraising skills.

Rick Perry: The longest serving governor in state history (since 2000) is running for a third term. Perry has campaigned on principled conservative leadership and job creation. Perry touts his record of cutting taxes, reducing spending, enforcing reasonable regulations, and enacting tort reform as the reasons why businesses and people flock to Texas. Texas has fared better compared to others during the national recession. It is uncertain if voters will link Perry to that feat. But Perry must admit some failures during his tenure. Under his watch, education remains stagnant, his Trans-Texas Corridor tested private property rights, hyper-partisanship has further split the Legislature, and a revolving door of lobbyists continue to put Texans’ interest second.

Kay Bailey Hutchison: Texas’ senior US Senator has characterized herself as a true leader that will beholden to Texas, not special interests. Hutchison has come out strongly against the now scrapped TTC and wants to dial down the political rancor in Austin. Hutchison has the big name donors and supporters- including former Vice President Cheney but it’s unclear if she has the backing of the large grassroots supporters that often make or break an election. Hutchison needs to come clean and have clear answers to her beliefs on abortion and when she is going to resign to win over reluctant supporters.

Debra Medina: A party chairwoman turned candidate is probably the most unexpected turn of events this political season. Medina has aligned herself with the tea party activists and began gaining support after the first televised debates. Medina has proposed eliminating all property taxes and suggested replacing it with a broader consumption tax. Additionally, her campaign has highlighted the growing anger against incumbents in both Austin and Washington. But, Medina stumbled upon the wrath of Glenn Beck when she felt the US government may have aided in the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Center. The most recent polls were conducted prior to her remark; it is yet to be known how her remarks will affect voters.

Whoever wins the March 2nd GOP primary will face against likely Democratic gubernatorial candidate, Bill White.

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