US Rep. Colin Allred hopes to unseat Sen. Ted Cruz in the upcoming November general election.

Sen. Ted Cruz, though often loathed by Texas Democrats, has remained in his seat since 2013. Although Rep. Colin Allred is riding the potential of a Texas turned blue, the attempt to turn the state is something easier said than done. Current polls of the senatorial race are generally mixed, but they do illustrate the closeness of this particular election. I would be excited to see an Allred senatorship, with his potential platform; however, I am skeptical about the odds of Texas flipping with this election.

A win by Allred would be the first Democrat to win a statewide election since former Gov. Ann Richards in 1990, and the first Democratic U.S. senator since Bob Krueger. 

However, it is important to note even these Democrats were more conservative than contemporary figures within the party. Richards, for example, vetoed legislation from the Texas legislature which offered potential checks on handgun ownership in the state. However, it could be a strategic move on the side of Allred to emulate the principles of Democratic President Lyndon B. Johnson to get support from “toss-up counties” in Texas.

I define “toss-up counties” as those, usually within central Texas, where the election is won by a relatively small difference at the polls. It is easy to guess that Allred will win the large “blue” counties such as: Dallas, Travis, Harris and Bexar, but the election might come down to the democratic growth in smaller counties like Collin and Hays. 

Allred’s attempt at appealing to potential moderates in the counties include his stances on immigration, gun ownership and national security. Additionally, Allred tried to highlight this through his social media and advertisements. A campaign ad for Allred featured the candidate alongside border patrol agents criticizing Cruz’s inability to work on bipartisan border security acts. 

An attempt to sway moderate voters can also be seen with Liz Cheney’s endorsement of Allred. By gaining recognition from more “classical” conservatives, Allred could try to appeal to Texas citizens’ admiration for the past.

Still, this may all be in vain as right-leaning media, such as Fox News, continue to criticize Allred for his change in policies and positions. A reputation as a disingenuous politician would put Allred in the same box as those he is attempting to oppose. 

Looking beyond the possibility that Allred may sway voters in traditionally conservative areas, he still has to combat the problem of Texas’ low voter turnout. 

In the 2023 gubernatorial race, 17,672,143 Texans were registered to vote but only 8,102,908 showed up on election day. In the March primaries, only 18% of those registered voted; which becomes a problem for Allred’s campaign when it is revealed most voter turnout is from Texas Republicans. Still, the turnout of this senatorial race might be higher due to the general election falling at the same time as the presidential election. 

While Allred can try and ride the wave of increased Democratic numbers in his home district of Collin County, he must actively push those within historically underrepresented counties to go to the polls.

Voter registration drives only work when they encourage citizens to understand the weight of an election. If Allred cares as much as he says he does about this election he should spend less funds on advertisements as well as less time on social media “slam dunks”. 

“We deserve better than a Senator who cares more about putting out another podcast episode than fighting for Texans. You can always count on me to look out for your best interests in the Senate, not myself,” Allred said via X. 

I see some fault in Allred’s criticism of Cruz’s podcasting, as I can definitely see podcasting as a valuable way to communicate with constituents. I think both candidates should actually mobilize and campaign across Texas.

However, only Allred will suffer if he does not due to Cruz having the benefit of Texas’ current inclination towards Republican candidates.

Both candidates are set to debate on Oct. 25 hosted by WFAA and streaming on statewide news affiliate channels, including KVUE and Apple TV.