March Madness is exactly what it sounds like: 64 teams battling it out for the NCAA championship. With so many teams competing to be number one and the frenzy of upsets that take place, it’s almost impossible to know which team will come out on top.

Every year millions of fans fill out NCAA brackets for a chance to win money or just a chance to see if they can one-up their friends in the ultimate guessing game. This year there was even more interest in March Madness as billionaire Warren Buffet teamed up with Quicken Loans and decided to sponsor a bracket challenge that would have awarded anyone with a perfect bracket one billion dollars. According to USA Today, the odds of correctly picking an entire bracket are 9.2 quintillion-to-1.

This year however, no one will be going home with one billion dollars from Warren Buffet, as there are no more perfect brackets left in the challenge. According to Yahoo Sports, there was only one person that correctly picked the first round of the tournament. Sadly, his luck ran out early on in the second round. ESPN also reported that in the 13 years of sponsoring a bracket challenge, and over 30 million brackets filled out, no one has come even close to perfection. Although, those statistics still don’t deter people from coming up with unique ways to fill out their bracket. Perhaps you’d like to use these methods for next year.

Some people base their assumptions  solely on luck, while others off of studying a team’s statistics. Some pick teams based on team colors, while others base their picks off of the U.S News report. Some just pick teams based off if they like the team’s name or if they have some form of allegiance to a team.

Sometimes following personal intuition is the best method, but following a scientific method might offer a better chance of at least beating your friends. Some of the ways for finding which team will win can be based on a lot of factors, but if you look at these four you’ll probably end up with a good-looking bracket.

First, it’s important to look at a team’s strength of schedule to see if they have played any good teams, because a ranking is just a ranking. Second, it’s important to look at a team’s recent record because a team that’s on a winning streak is better than a team that is struggling. Third, it’s important to see if a team can win on the road since tournament games are played on a neutral court. Lastly it’s important to see where a team ranks defensively and how well it can rebound–Ultimately those are the key factors that will get a team far in the tournament.

Yet just like all other methods to pick the perfect bracket, these too are flawed. It’s impossible to know which team is going to show up ready to perform and which team is simply not ready for the big stage. Overall, March Madness is a thrilling event that is highly unpredictable.